A Reuters/Ipsos exclusive opinion poll published Oct 12, 2026 finds that most Americans oppose using prediction markets to wager on U.S. elections and other government actions, with the opposition holding across party lines even as the industry led by Polymarket and Kalshi keeps growing, Reuters reported.
The poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults online from Sept 30 through Oct 5. On elections, 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans told the October poll they opposed using prediction markets to wager on election results, according to the Reuters/Ipsos findings.
In the October poll, 65% of Americans opposed prediction-market betting on military actions, and 63% opposed bets on government policy announcements or decisions, with only 8% and 9% respectively supporting such wagers, Reuters reported.
The industry argues the markets are often better at forecasting outcomes than traditional polls, that it has extensive controls against misconduct, and that the contracts offer unique ways to hedge esoteric real-world risks, according to the Reuters account. The poll results land as the platforms market heavily on social media and television.
The timing matters for the regulatory fight. The poll arrives days after the CFTC moved Oct 9 to define prediction-market event contracts as swaps under its exclusive jurisdiction, and while states and gaming regulators push in court to treat the contracts as gambling. Reuters notes policymakers have raised concerns that the platforms open new channels for insider trading and manipulation, and that some Democratic lawmakers argue the markets are unethical, socially corrosive and could undermine national security.
Analysis: the poll does not change any law, but it changes the politics. Regulators and state attorneys general pushing against prediction markets now have a bipartisan public-opinion number to cite, which strengthens the case for hearings, restrictions on government-event contracts, and skeptical court filings. Watch how the platforms respond in their messaging, whether the numbers show up in the CFTC's 30-day comment period on its swaps proposal, and whether lawmakers use them to advance bills like the Prediction Market Act.