Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets spent at least $3 million in 2026 on lobbying and campaign contributions across state and federal levels, according to a new OpenSecrets analysis reported October 2-6. Kalshi, by far the biggest spender, had at least one registered lobbyist in 41 states as of September, with nearly all of them hired since April, per the watchdog group's review of disclosure filings (Gaming America; Stateline).
The attorney-general and governors' groups are the centerpiece of the money. According to IRS filings reviewed by OpenSecrets, Kalshi gave $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association and $170,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association in the first half of 2026, plus $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association. The company also donated to a super PAC supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate bid and to the campaigns of Vermont Attorney General Charity Clark, Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield and Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier (Gaming America). Clark and Rayfield told local news outlets the donations did not influence them, and Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said the company supports candidates on both sides of the aisle (Gaming America; Stateline).
The ground game is heaviest in California and New York, the two states where prediction-market legislation and enforcement are most active. Kalshi spent $62,000 on California lobbying in the first half of the year, covering three assembly bills and engagement with the governor's and attorney general's offices, initially through Redwood Public Affairs, whose co-founder was previously chief of staff to Attorney General Rob Bonta; the company registered a second firm, the Weideman Group, on August 12 (Gaming America; Elk Grove News). In New York, Kalshi raised its monthly payment to Brown and Weinraub Advisors from $10,000 to $25,000, signed the Mirram Group at $25,000 a month through July 2027, and registered in-house lobbyist Blake Bee, putting its projected Empire State spend above $400,000 through July 2027 (Gaming America).
The federal operation is running at a comparable scale. Kalshi opened a Washington, D.C. office in January and spent nearly $1 million on federal lobbying through June 30, including $240,000 paid to Miller Strategies and $120,000 to Lincoln Policy Group, according to Gaming America. Federal Election Commission filings show co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara collectively gave about $1 million to Democratic and Republican recipients during the current election cycle. Kalshi's federal disclosures name lobbying on the Prediction Market Act, the Protect College Sports Act and the National Defense Authorization Act, plus engagement with the CFTC, the Executive Office of the President, the SEC and Congress; the Protect College Sports Act passed the Senate on October 5 and awaited House action (Gaming America).
The industry-wide vehicle is the Coalition for Prediction Markets, launched in December 2025 by Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Underdog; Polymarket is not a member. As of June 30 the coalition had paid $100,000 to four Invariant lobbyists and registered two lobbyists with Determinant (Gaming America). Polymarket's own footprint is far smaller: $180,000 in federal lobbying in 2026 and no state-level lobbyists registered, according to the report. OpenSecrets found Kalshi's 41-state presence covers every state that has introduced prediction-market-specific legislation (Stateline).
The spending surge is timed to the legal fight's decisive phase. The CFTC has sued nine states trying to regulate prediction markets (Business Report), 44 state attorneys general signed a July letter arguing federal oversight should not displace state gambling authority, and on September 25 the Sixth Circuit ruled that Ohio and Tennessee may apply their gambling laws to Kalshi's sports contracts (Gaming America). Kalshi is now built to lobby the aftermath: if the Supreme Court lets states regulate, its 41-state network is positioned to fight or shape each state's regime; if the Court rules the other way, the same network exists to write that victory into state statutes. The open question is whether $3 million in political capital can move statehouses faster than enforcement actions can move courts.