Kalshi has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to terminate its Volume Incentive Program no earlier than October 13, 2026, according to Unchained's September 30, 2026 report on a CFTC filing dated September 28. A redlined copy of the program's terms shows the end date moved up from October 1, 2027, nearly a year early, and the filing gives no reason for the change.
The program was first filed in February 2023 to "incentivize trading and increase volume and enhance pricing efficiency" on the exchange, according to Unchained's review of the filing. It paid eligible traders a share of fixed per-market reward pools in proportion to their eligible order-book volume. Members with market-maker agreements were excluded, event-contract trades counted only if priced between 3 and 97 cents under the filing's February 2023 terms, and rewards were capped at half a cent per contract, according to the same review.
The move comes as regulators turn up the heat on incentive schemes across the sector. The CFTC issued an advisory opinion on August 12, 2026 warning that high-volume rewards could increase wash trading and that market-maker reward programs could facilitate fraud and manipulation, according to HTX Insights' October 3 report, originally published by Odaily Planet Daily. On September 29, reports said the CFTC is investigating whether reward programs use misleading promotions to attract traders, with some form of action expected before the end of that week, according to the same report.
Researchers and reporting flagged more than $5 billion in repetitive Ether perpetual trades on Kalshi made in roughly $5,500 increments, and the Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC was reviewing those patterns for possible wash trading, according to Particle's September 30 summary. Kalshi rejects the wash-trading claim, saying the prints came from market makers posting fixed resting quotes and that its systems block self-matching, according to Particle.
September headline volume, according to data from The Block cited by crypto.news on September 30: | Metric | Figure | |---|---| | Kalshi September volume, through Sep 29 | $52.98 billion | | Kalshi August volume | $38.67 billion | | Kalshi July volume (of $50.6B sector total) | $37.7 billion | | Disputed ETH perpetual prints under CFTC review | more than $5 billion |
Polymarket may be the next target. Polyscalping data cited by HTX Insights shows that since Polymarket began charging trading fees in January 2026, the platform generated $229 million in fees while distributing $128 million in rewards, or 54.3 percent of fee revenue, as of the October 3 report. DeFiLlama data in the same report shows Polymarket ranking fifth in 24-hour fees across blockchains at $3.21 million while booking only about $400,000 in revenue, implying roughly $2.8 million a day flowing back to traders and market makers as rewards, according to the report.
Those rewards are not decorative. Dune data cited by HTX shows Polymarket's new-user growth accelerating exactly when each reward launched: 233,000 new users in January 2026, the first month above 200,000 since January 2025, coinciding with the maker rebate program, and a record 259,000 in March 2026 alongside the referral reward program, according to the report.
Analysis: Kalshi can afford the retreat because it is the regulated exchange playing to the CFTC; it filed a replacement Deposit and Trading Reward Incentive Program on September 25 and says liquidity incentives will continue into 2027, according to Particle. Polymarket has no such exit. Its rewards are load-bearing, funding both liquidity depth and user growth, which is why a CFTC crackdown on incentive programs would hit it far harder than Kalshi. We will track the CFTC's next moves as they surface, and how human traders respond once the volume rewards disappear.